In a captivating conversation at Riyadh, Peter Diamandis welcomed Elon Musk to delve into some of the most pressing and fascinating topics shaping the future. The discussion ranged from AI and robotics to energy and interplanetary exploration. As always, Musk’s insights combined audacious predictions with a call for cautious optimism.
Kicking Off: An Unprecedented 90 Days
Peter opened the dialogue by marveling at Musk’s accomplishments over the past three months. “The X.AI Colossus came online 122 days ago, and you’re about to double its size,” he noted. He also highlighted the “extraordinary success of the 5th Starship mission and booster capture,” the advancements in disaster relief through Starlink, progress with Optimus robots, and the Neuralink human trials.
Musk responded with a light-hearted, “What’s happening?” before diving into the details. “Yeah, I’ve been playing a significant role in this election as well,” he added, hinting at his involvement in broader societal issues.
The AI Revolution: Exponential Growth and Existential Questions
The conversation quickly shifted to artificial intelligence, a subject on everyone’s mind. Peter referenced their last discussion in March, where Musk predicted that AI was advancing at 100 times per year and might match the capabilities of 8 billion humans by 2029 or 2030.
Musk explained, “It’s difficult to quantify exactly, but I feel comfortable saying it’s getting about 10 times better per year. If that continues, we’re looking at 10,000 times better in four years, and maybe 100,000 times better soon after. AI will likely be able to do anything a single human can do within a year or two.”
“AI will likely be able to do anything a single human can do within a year or two.” Elon Musk
He added that it may only take three more years for AI to combine all human capabilities. “By 2028 or 2029, we’ll likely see it.”
“It may only take three more years for AI to combine all human capabilities.” Elon Musk
Peter brought up an earlier assessment Musk had shared with Geoffrey Hinton, suggesting an 80% chance that AI would be awesome and a 20% chance it could go bad. Musk reaffirmed those odds. “It’s most likely going to be great, but there’s a 10% to 20% chance it could go bad. The risk isn’t zero.”
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- The A.I. Dilemma and The Church, Artificial Intelligence (Part 3) AI robots in our image: Can they really be harmless? Why did the AI creator panic and warn world leaders?
- The A.I. Dilemma and The Church, Artificial Intelligence (Part 4) Exchanging the Glory of God for the Image and Last Days Prophecy
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Worries for the Future: AI and Population Collapse
When asked what keeps him up at night, Musk joked, “Waking up early to join talks like this one!” before turning serious. He identified AI as a significant existential threat, but also emphasized another long-term concern: global population collapse.
“Birth rates are declining worldwide,” he explained. “For example, South Korea’s population could shrink to a third of its current size in three generations. Europe would be half, or even less. If this continues, some countries might end up with just 5% of their current populations.”
Musk acknowledged his personal contribution to countering this trend. “You’ve got to walk the talk, and I encourage others to have lots of kids too.”
AI Safety: A Truth-Seeking Approach
Peter then asked how Musk is addressing the 10% probability of dystopian AI outcomes. Musk emphasized the importance of creating “a maximally truth-seeking AI.” He expressed concern that many current AIs are politically biased and reflect the ideologies of their creators, particularly in places like the San Francisco Bay Area.
“That’s why I created X.AI,” Musk said, explaining its goal to align AI with humanity’s best interests. “We need AIs that are maximally truth-seeking and genuinely care about humanity.”
“We need AIs that are maximally truth-seeking and genuinely care about humanity.” Elon Musk
Related:
- The A.I. Dilemma and the Church (Part 5) | “A-Eye” is Watching! Is Big Tech, Big Brother?
- The A.I. Dilemma and the Church (Part 6) Deconstruction of Capitalisms, the Rise of a new Economy, and the Beast Economy
- The A.I. Dilemma and the Church (Part 7) Are we in George Orwell’s “1984” and the Importance of Nurturing Authentic Human Relationships.
- The A.I. Dilemma and the Church (Part 8) Know Your Enemy
Energy Challenges and the Kardashev Scale
As the conversation shifted to energy, Peter asked about the growing power demands of AI clusters. Musk acknowledged the challenge but pointed out that long-term energy solutions lie with the Sun. “Civilization’s progress can be measured on the Kardashev Scale,” he noted. “While we’re far from even reaching Type 1, we’ll get there by harnessing solar energy.”
Robotics: Humanoids by 2040
Peter highlighted Musk’s advancements in robotics, particularly the Optimus 2 robot. Musk predicted that by 2040, there would likely be more humanoid robots than humans—over 10 billion.
“There would likely be more humanoid robots than humans—over 10 billion.” Elon Musk
As for pricing, Musk estimated, “Around $20,000 to $25,000.” He painted a picture of a future where the marginal cost of goods and services becomes “extremely low,” thanks to advancements in robotics and AI.
Mars: The Next Frontier
No Musk interview would be complete without touching on interplanetary exploration. When asked about Starship’s timeline for reaching Mars, Musk stated, “We aim to send an uncrewed Starship to Mars in two years, during the next Mars window. If successful, crewed missions could follow two years later.”
Peter described this timeline as ambitious but within reach, especially if regulatory challenges are managed effectively.
Related:
- The A.I. Dilemma and the Church (Part 8) Know Your Enemy
- The A.I. Dilemma and the Church (Part 9) Mount Carmel – God vs. Baal
- The A.I. Dilemma & The Church (Part 10): Baal E-Masculation, ToS, Unveiling the E-Masculation Effect of Artificial Intelligence and its Profound Influence on Masculinity
- The A.I. Dilemma and the Church (Part 11) The Mind of Christ vs. The “Mind” of A.I.
Autonomous Vehicles: CyberCab and Beyond
Peter congratulated Musk on the CyberCab, and Musk shared Tesla’s plans for autonomous vehicles. “Tesla’s full self-driving should exceed human safety levels by Q2 next year,” he revealed. The CyberCab itself is expected to enter volume production by 2026. Musk believes this innovation could become Tesla’s biggest product yet, with the potential to save over a million lives annually.
“The CyberCab itself is expected to enter volume production by 2026
Musk believes this innovation could become Tesla’s biggest product yet.” Elon Musk
A Future of Abundance
Musk concluded on an optimistic note. He foresees a post-capitalist society driven by AI and robotics. “We’re headed for an age of abundance where anyone can have any goods and services they want. It won’t be a case of universal basic income but universal high income.”
“We’re headed for an age of abundance where anyone can have any goods and services they want.
It won’t be a case of universal basic income but universal high income.” Elon Musk
Related:
- The A.I. Dilemma and the Church (Part 12) War on Jesus
- The A.I. Dilemma and the Church (Part 13) Singularity
- The A.I. Dilemma and the Church (Part 14) A.I.’s World War III
- The A.I. Dilemma and the Church (Part 15) Civil War?
- The A.I. Dilemma and the Church (Part 16) – Twisted: A.I., God, & Heaven
- The A.I. Dilemma and the Church (Part 17) – Beyond the Reset: A Dystopian Future